Hurricane Rafael became the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season this week, reaching the minimum expectation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Back in May, Noaa warned of an above-average level of activity, predicting 17-25 named storms, in comparison with the average of 14.
Of these 17-25 storms, Noaa predicted that eight to 13 would become hurricanes, four to seven of which would be classified as “major”, meaning category 3 or higher. Both of these predictions are also above average, and these thresholds have already been reached, with Rafael being the 11th hurricane and fifth major hurricane of the season.
Rafael began as a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea about two weeks ago, which then slowly developed until it became a tropical storm on Monday. Even before this development, the disturbance influenced heavy rains in Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, leading to flooding and landslides, with damages including a bridge collapse.
Rafael then tracked north-west and slowly strengthened, passing to the west of Jamaica before achieving category 1 hurricane status as it moved through the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. It rapidly intensified to category 3 as the storm continued towards Cuba, making landfall in the far west of the island on Wednesday.
In parts of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba, there were several inches of rainfall, much of which fell within a few hours, causing further flooding and landslides. Some 70,000 people were evacuated from their homes in Cuba in anticipation of a dangerous storm surge. Maximum wind speeds of 115mph damaged the power grid so severely there was a nationwide power outage.
Meanwhile, the category 4-equivalent Super Typhoon Yinxing, also known as Marce, is now moving westwards across the South China Sea, having passed over the northern tip of the Philippines on Thursday, with sustained winds of 110mph. This is the 13th named storm of the 2024 Pacific typhoon season to affect the Philippines and the third in a row after Tropical Storm Trami and Typhoon Kong-rey in recent weeks, both of which also affected the northernmost islands, killing 158 people.
More than 160,000 people were evacuated before the arrival of Yinxing, and authorities warned of flash flooding and landslides from heavy rain, and storm surges of up to 10ft.
Yinxing is forecast to veer south-west in the coming days, avoiding the Chinese province of Hainan and heading for Vietnam, but is expected to downgrade to tropical storm status before making landfall.
Source: theguardian.com
