It has been seven years since Haiti’s last election, almost three years since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, and over a year since the previous elected officials ended their terms. However, it seems that the restoration of democracy in Port-au-Prince is still a ways off.
On Sunday, after gangs stormed the country’s two biggest jails and freed more than 3,800 criminals, the Haitian government declared a 72-hour state of emergency and a night curfew. But with gangs now exerting de facto authority over about 80% of the capital, and senior figures including acting president Ariel Henry out of the country, the government’s future appears increasingly uncertain. Yesterday, the Miami Herald reported that the gangs made a second attempt to take over the national airport.
The potential solution for Haiti’s state of chaos involves a UN-supported security team, composed of 1,000 officers from Kenya, to control the gangs – however, their anticipated arrival has prompted a truce between the rival gangs. They have also declared their intention to capture the police chief and government officials.
In today’s newsletter, we will be discussing the gangs’ strength and the possibility of defeating them with International Crisis Group’s Haiti specialist, Diego Da Rin. Here are the main points.
Five big stories
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In detail: ‘The condition has significantly worsened.’
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The current turmoil in Haiti can be linked to the murder of President Jovenel Moïse, but its origins can be found in deeper issues. These include the severe economic aftermath of the 2010 earthquake, the 29-year authoritarian reign of “Papa Doc” and “Baby Doc” Duvalier, and the damaging effects of the significant reparations Haiti was compelled to pay to France for decades after gaining independence in 1804, which greatly hindered its economic progress.
In a conversation with First Edition in January, history expert Prof Matthew Smith shared his perspective on Haiti’s history, saying “One could view the country’s past as a succession of pressing issues with brief moments of optimism and tranquility” – yet, “the current situation in Haiti is unlike anything ever seen before.”
What has occurred since that time?
Conditions have deteriorated. According to the United Nations, approximately 4,000 individuals lost their lives and 3,000 were taken by gangs in 2023 due to violence. Sexual assault is a major issue, with 1,100 reported incidents against women as of October. Around 200,000 people have been forced to leave their homes and half of the population in Haiti is experiencing food insecurity. Essential amenities like electricity, clean water, and garbage disposal are not dependable. It is anticipated that the economy has been in decline for five consecutive years when the final calculations for 2023 are released.
In recent days, the events that have unfolded have only increased negativity. Diego Da Rina, the writer of a recent report from the Crisis Group, expressed this sentiment, stating that the situation has significantly worsened due to the prison attack and other coordinated attacks on government entities. Police stations have been set on fire, the main airport has been attacked, and there have been threats to take over the national palace.
What is the extent of power that the gangs possess?
Haiti’s prime minister, Ariel Henry, took up the role of acting president after the death of Moïse, but is widely viewed as illegitimate, and has repeatedly failed to hold promised elections. The vacuum of democratically accountable political authority created space for Haiti’s already powerful gangs to expand their influence in the capital, and rival coalitions – G9, led by former elite police officer Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier, and Gpèp, which lacks a single clear leader – have fought for control of the city.
However, the police force in Haiti is lacking in strength as it currently only has around 10,000 active officers nationwide. According to the United Nations, it is estimated that they actually need around 26,000 officers. Within the past year alone, approximately 1,600 officers have resigned.
Da Rin stated that the October decision by the UN security council to deploy a multinational security force to Haiti in order to address the issues with gangs only escalated the violence. He mentioned that both sides were attempting to gain control of more territory before the force’s arrival, with the intention of asserting their dominance and intimidating the foreign troops.
The two coalitions have renewed a peace agreement, known as “Viv Ansanm” or “living together” in Haitian Creole, in order to overthrow the temporary government and solidify their power.
Is it possible for an international security force to have an impact?
The United Nations has declared its endorsement of a Kenyan-led international force, bringing hope that it could potentially combat the gangs. This is not a traditional UN peacekeeping operation, as the previous one had a devastating reputation due to numerous sexual misconduct accusations and a deadly cholera outbreak caused by sewage from a UN base, resulting in almost 10,000 deaths.
The objective of the force was not to eradicate the gangs, but to regain authority over important pathways into and out of the capital, safeguard state infrastructure, and establish stability in regards to security. However, there were cautionary statements stating that the incoming force would require extensive training to combat the gangs in a complex urban setting where gang members blend in with regular civilians.
“It is a very complicated challenge that the mission would have to face,” Da Rin said, pointing out that as well as the gangs the new arrivals would have to contend with Bwa Kale, an organic and diffuse civilian vigilante movement that has been linked to public lynchings of suspected gang members.
However, according to him, the gangs were experiencing great fear for their own safety due to the potential arrival of a new opponent. He also acknowledged that the Haitian police may not be a strong force, but the gangs are worried about facing a foreign force that is well-trained and better-equipped.
Why hasn’t the force been implemented yet?
After receiving approval from the UN, it has been five months and there is still no physical presence, with only a one-year initial authorization. According to Da Rin, the deadline has been looming since October 2 and ample time should have been provided to train, prepare, and secure necessary resources and staff.
A major challenge arose in Kenya when the government pledged to provide 1,000 police officers for a potential 5,000-member force. However, a court ruling deemed the plan unconstitutional. To save the plan, Ariel Henry visited Nairobi last week and signed a new agreement with Kenyan president, William Ruto.
His absence from the nation seems to have played a role in the prisons being targeted by gangs. It is currently uncertain when he intends to return. According to the Miami Herald, there was widespread panic due to rumors of his imminent return, resulting in business closures and an increase in police patrols.
Benin has extended an offer for an additional 2,000 personnel, but according to Da Rin, there is uncertainty regarding their level of training. The issue not only lies in the number of troops committed, but also in securing the necessary funding for the mission to be fully operational.
This suggests that it may take several months before the plan can actually be implemented. It has been proposed that Kenya will not dispatch its officers until all of the necessary funding is secured, and according to Da Rin, without a leading country, the mission cannot be carried out. Time is running out for the mission to be successful.
What steps need to be taken to de-empower gangs and reinstate democracy?
According to Da Rin, there are signs that “Barbecue” and other gang leaders may be trying to present themselves as political figures advocating for the interests of the Haitian people in order to find a resolution.
The speaker suggested that the dialogue could potentially result in a peaceful resolution or pardons. However, currently, the gangs hold the advantage and have caused tremendous suffering for the Haitian community through their kidnappings, rapes, and arbitrary killings. It would be challenging for ordinary citizens to accept negotiations with individuals who have committed such heinous acts. Therefore, the suggested approach would be to first deploy a mission and then engage in negotiations from a position of power.
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In the meantime, the opposing political group seems skeptical of Henry’s assurance to conduct elections by August 2025. “There are many who no longer trust his word,” he stated. “It will require significant effort from regional figures to persuade them to resume talks with him.”
Currently, addressing political matters seems to be a privilege. According to Da Rin, the current situation is urgent, and if the gangs persist with their massive assaults, they could potentially take over the entire capital in a short time frame.
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The front pages
Today’s main story featured in our print edition of The Guardian is titled “Doctors Warn of Dire Consequences as NHS Braces for Largest Budget Cut in Half a Century”. According to The Daily Mail, there is controversy among Vicars over the Church’s decision to pay £1 billion in reparations for slavery. The Times reports on divisions within the Conservative Party regarding a new definition of extremism, and The Daily Mirror covers the party’s recent “poll humiliation” with a headline stating “Tories on the Run” as their support among voters drops to 20%. The i mentions tensions within the Conservative Party as Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Chancellor Rishi Sunak compete over the upcoming Budget. The Financial Times highlights the news of a €1.8 billion fine imposed on Apple by Brussels for stifling competition in the music streaming market.
“Metro reports on the tragic consequences of the housing crisis, with 55 children, including 42 infants, losing their lives due to living conditions such as dampness and mold in temporary housing. Priti Patel calls on France to take greater action with the funds provided to prevent small boats from crossing. The Daily Telegraph’s main headline reveals the severity of the situation, as news of German army leaks is seen as only the beginning of a larger issue.”
Today in Focus
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The Upside
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Some positive news to remind you that the world is not all negative.
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If you frequently catch yourself wasting time during the day and feeling annoyed that your mind is not functioning properly, the solution to your mental blockage may ultimately rest in your legs. In her research, Sam Pyrah interviews specialists who are establishing stronger connections between physical activity and creative productivity. “Just one short session of aerobic exercise can stimulate creative thinking,” claims Dr. Chong Chen from Yamaguchi University in Japan.
Creative thinking can be divided into two aspects – the drawing of associations between unrelated things that is the creation of ideas, known as divergent thinking, and the weighing up of the value of such ideas, known as convergent thinking. Studies have demonstrated that the former is stimulated by everything from dancing and running to simply walking up stairs.
According to Amir-Homayoun Javadi, a cognitive neuroscience researcher at the University of Kent, engaging in aerobic exercise on a consistent basis can lead to alterations in the brain’s structure. This can result in an increase in brain volume, specifically in the hippocampus, which can have positive effects on various cognitive functions. In other words, regular aerobic activity can enhance the potential for creativity in the brain.
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Bored at work?
Lastly, the Guardian offers puzzles to help keep you entertained all day. See you tomorrow.
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Source: theguardian.com
