Good morning. In a grinding war where significant changes at the front are hard to discern, a video released by Ukraine on Sunday is a rare point of focus: it featured two North Korean soldiers, answering questions from their Ukrainian captors, and weighing the circumstances of their presence in a conflict thousands of miles from home.
The video is, perhaps, not militarily significant. But it is a unique insight into one of the more extraordinary aspects of a conflict that has drawn in actors from all over the world, and is a crucible in which every participant is learning how modern wars are fought.
For today’s newsletter I spoke to Guardian foreign correspondent Luke Harding, who is reporting from eastern Ukraine, about what Kyiv hopes to gain from the video’s release – and what fate might await the captured soldiers in the weeks ahead. Here are the headlines.
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Economy | Rachel Reeves will remain as chancellor until the next general election, Keir Starmer has insisted, as he warned the Treasury would be “ruthless” over public spending cuts to help meet the government’s fiscal rules.
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Gaza | Joe Biden has said his administration is on the brink of sealing a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that could pause the war after more than 14 months of fighting. Biden administration officials have said they believe the deal may be concluded before Donald Trump’s inauguration next week.
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US politics | Donald Trump would have been convicted of crimes over his failed attempt to cling to power in 2020 if he had not won the presidential election in 2024, according to the special counsel who investigated him. Jack Smith’s report detailing his team’s findings about Trump’s efforts to subvert democracy was released early on Tuesday.
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UK news | A man accused of driving a young mother to suicide through domestic violence has been found guilty of assault and prolonged controlling behaviour but cleared of her manslaughter. Ryan Wellings, 30, was blamed from “beyond the grave” for the death of his partner, Kiena Dawes. Read more about the case.
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‘Forever chemicals’ | The cost of cleaning up toxic forever chemical pollution could reach more than £1.6tn across the UK and Europe over a 20-year period, an annual bill of £84bn, research has found. PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) are used in everything from cosmetics to nonstick pans but are almost indestructible without human intervention.
In depth: ‘If you’d told me North Korean soldiers would be fighting Ukraine, I’d have said you were mad’
The two soldiers, one with bandages on his hands and the other with one around his jaw, are the first North Koreans to be captured by Ukraine. And they represent an unusual propaganda opportunity for Ukraine.
“It’s an astonishing moment in the war,” Luke Harding said. “If you’d told me five years ago that North Korean soldiers would be fighting against Ukraine, I’d have said you were mad. We know North Koreans are there, but Russia has formally denied that is the case. So it’s a big thing for Kyiv to be able to say they’ve captured them.”
What did we learn from the video released by Ukraine?
The two men in the clip posted on social media by Volodymyr Zelenskyy appear battered and disoriented, with little understanding of the war they have found themselves in.
Under questioning, one says he thought he was taking part in a training exercise rather than a war. The other says his family don’t know where he is. One says that he wants to return to North Korea, and the other says he would like to stay in Ukraine but that he will go home if required to do so.
Zelenskyy has said the two men will be made available to the media in the future. We should, however, exercise some caution in interpreting what they say in the video – it was produced by Ukraine without access for journalists or other third parties.
“But it appears they have provided useful information,” Luke said. One had a fake Russian name and documents – his apparent counterfeit ID is pictured above – confirming previous reporting on the subterfuge involved in getting them to the front. “They said they were experienced soldiers, that they’ve been living in dugouts in small groups, that morale is high. They are likely to be providing more information off camera that the Ukrainians can use.”
Why did Ukraine release the video?
In his message accompanying the video, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was ready to hand over North Korean prisoners of war if an exchange for Ukrainians held by Russia could be organised. And he said that North Koreans who do not wish to return home could “bring peace closer by spreading the truth about this war in Korean”.
There are other unspoken motives that may be in play: a hope that the video will prove galvanising to western support, a morale boost for Ukrainians and a way to signal to Pyongyang that their role in the conflict could lead to their adversaries gaining military intelligence.
Earlier yesterday, Luke said, he had been conducting an interview while an Iranian Shahed missile flew overhead. “And there are other missiles with Chinese microelectronics, and North Korean soldiers 50 kilometres away. So the video is a persuasive way to argue that this is not a regional conflict, it is a supranational conflict, with consequences all over the world.”
Another question is whether the release of the video constitutes a breach of the soldiers’ human rights: the Geneva conventions say that prisoners of war should not be made into a “public curiosity”. It is a matter for debate whether this video constitutes such treatment.
“We should note that the Russians routinely torture, starve, beat and electrocute Ukrainian prisoners of war,” Luke said. “The available evidence suggests that the Russians are quite well treated, partly because there are far more Ukrainians captured than the other way round, so Ukraine wants to have a stronger hand in exchange negotiations.”
What impact have North Korean soldiers made on the war?
The North Koreans have been fighting in the Kursk region of western Russia, where Ukraine made a cross-border incursion last August and have been defending their captured territory since. Kyiv is thought to have lost about half of the 1,250 square kilometres that it captured last summer at the cost of many Russian and Ukrainian lives.
There are varying estimates of the number of North Korean troops, but the Pentagon puts the number on the frontline since late last year at about 11,000. A South Korean MP claimed yesterday that about 300 had been killed, and 2,700 injured.
With so little information available from conventional sources about the state of the North Korean military, analysts have reached different conclusions about their value to the Kremlin. By one account, they are simply cannon fodder, called on because of the number of Russian casualties during the war so far – about 600,000 killed or injured, the US estimates – to push the Ukrainians back through sheer weight of numbers.
Some observers say they are likely to be poorly trained in the specific circumstances that they face in Kursk: the South Korean intelligence agency told lawmakers in Seoul that North Korean troops had been seen in battlefield footage shooting at drones too far away to hit, and charging at the Ukrainians without adequate artillery support.
But Ukrainian military sources have said that the North Koreans are a formidable opponent, with a sometimes suicidal commitment to their mission. Yaroslav Chepurnyi, a spokesman of the Ukrainian army, told Politico yesterday: “They have been blowing themselves up when they see capture is in sight.” Some have been seen setting off grenades held next to their heads when they believe they are about to be captured.
“When they first joined the conflict, they were marching in open ranks across snowy fields, and being slaughtered,” Luke said. “But now military intelligence sources say that they have adapted and improved – they’re operating in smaller groups, and dealing better with drones.”
That suggests one boon to Pyongyang in supplying troops beyond the hefty price Russia is paying: “They are using this as a training ground in the modalities of 21st-century war. There will be survivors who are shipped back and used as the next generation of military trainers.”
What future might the captured soldiers have?
In this piece published yesterday, Justin McCurry in Tokyo and Raphael Rashid in Seoul write that despite the unusual circumstances of their capture, South Korea has a general policy of accepting any would-be defector and promises them protection. They note that, for Seoul, their defection would represent a propaganda coup and could have valuable military intelligence.
As for whether North Korea or Russia will want them back, they quote Ethan Hee-Seok Shin, a legal analyst at Seoul-based NGO Transitional Justice Working Group:
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[It is] unclear if North Korea will even claim the two captured soldiers as their own, given Moscow and Pyongyang’s refusal to officially admit that North Korean forces have been deployed to Russia. At the same time, Russia could claim them as their own and hand them over to North Korea after they are traded with Ukrainian PoWs.
If they were forcibly returned to North Korea, they might face imprisonment, torture, or death. “I suspect the truth is that they will be returned eventually, and I suspect we won’t then hear from them again,” Luke said. “They aren’t generals or intelligence chiefs, so the intelligence they can provide will be quite limited. And there is a market in prisoner exchanges. The Ukrainians may feel that they can sell them high.”
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Sport
Tennis | Emma Raducanu (above) overcame her serving woes to battle through the first round at the Australian Open, beating Ekaterina Alexandrova of Russia 7-6, 6-2. She will face Amanda Anisimova in the second round.
Cricket | England’s women bowled Australia out for 180 within 45 overs but then struggled with the bat, eventually being bowled out for 159. The nailbiting finish leaves Australia 4-0 up on points in the Women’s Ashes series.
Boxing | Tyson Fury is retiring from boxing after a second defeat in his rematch with Oleksandr Usyk last month. Fury had announced a retirement from the ring in 2022 after beating Dillian Whyte, only to return at the end of the year to fight Derek Chisora. He also had short-lived retirements in 2013 and 2017.
The front pages
“Starmer backs Reeves and warns of ‘ruthless’ spending cuts” is the Guardian’s splash. The Telegraph sees it differently: “PM throws Reeves’s future into doubt”, while “Two lame ducks” is the Mail’s assessment of the chancellor and City minister Tulip Siddiq, who is under pressure over her links to her aunt Sheikh Hasina’s former regime in Bangladesh. The i has “Benefits face cut as No 10 admits ‘nothing is off the table’ in search for new savings”.
The Express continues to campaign on farm inheritance tax: “It’s now my children’s life and my grandchildren’s future at stake”. There is censure in the Financial Times for the undermining of sanctions as “EU yards carry out crucial repairs for Russian Arctic gas tanker fleet”. “My girl’s voice was not heard” – the Mirror leads on the death of Kiena Dawes; “Innocent monster” says the Metro of her “thug fiance”. “Labour law threatens customers’ free speech” is how the Times views protecting workers from harassment by customers.
Today in Focus
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Sam Pyrah (pictured above) was feeling anxious and helpless about the ecological and climate crises. During a particularly acute moment of distress, Pyrah’s counsellor told her she should do something practical – and to keep it simple, immediate and collaborative. A week later, she found herself fishing old carrier bags out of a river. Volunteering has made a huge difference to Pyrah’s life: she came home reinvigorated by nature, her fellow volunteers and, most importantly, the knowledge that she had acted in accordance with her values. “Later, I reflected on a paradox: while it was my total despair with human beings that led me into volunteering, it’s the goodness and kindness that I’ve witnessed as I’ve worked alongside my fellow humans that have kept me coming,” Pyrah writes.
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Source: theguardian.com
