Good morning. It’s been another miserable week for Rishi Sunak, and it’s only Wednesday. The fulcrum of his despair is today’s vote on the third reading of the government’s Rwanda deportation bill, which is meant to be a populist, lawyer-thwarting solution to the nightmare of the government’s policy on Channel crossings – but has come under serious threat from exactly the hardliners it was supposed to appease.
Yesterday, two Conservative vice chairs, Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith, stepped down from their positions in order to support amendments to the bill, along with 58 other members of their party. Despite this, the government is expected to succeed in the crucial vote later today – but this disagreement has once again brought the Conservative party’s internal discord to the forefront. In today’s newsletter, I interviewed Katy Balls, the political editor of the Spectator, about the ongoing struggle within the Tory party and what it reveals about their future direction. Here are the main points.
Five big stories
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Fujitsu, the technology company responsible for developing the flawed Horizon IT system used by the Post Office, has publicly acknowledged for the first time that it has a responsibility to provide financial compensation to the victims. Paul Patterson, the European leader of Fujitsu, stated that there is a moral duty for the company to contribute.
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Iran recently carried out airstrikes on Pakistani land, targeting a Sunni militant group. This is yet another indication of the ongoing violence spreading throughout the Middle East and beyond. The Pakistani foreign ministry reported that two children were killed and called in Tehran’s top diplomat in Islamabad to express their objections to the “unwarranted breach of their airspace.”
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The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, has announced plans to control the amount of time French children spend on screens, make school uniforms mandatory for testing purposes, and potentially require all primary school students to learn the national anthem. He made these statements during a press conference as part of his efforts to prevent the far-right from gaining ground in the upcoming European elections.
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The lawyer of Josef Fritzl, an Austrian man who imprisoned and sexually assaulted his daughter for 24 years in a specially constructed basement, has revealed that he is now seeking to be released from prison. If the appeal is granted, the 88-year-old may be relocated to a nursing home.
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Guinness World Records | Bobi the Portuguese mastiff, who had comfortably clinched the title of the oldest dog ever when he died in October at the apparent age of 31, is having the distinction reviewed after doubts were raised about his lifespan. Pictures purportedly of the same dog in 1999 appear to show him with different-coloured paws.
Detailed analysis: A feeling of deterioration and fear within the party.
Last month, Rishi Sunak announced his plan to implement his Rwanda policy. His legislation would bypass legal challenges to the government’s plan to relocate asylum seekers who arrive through irregular means to Rwanda, by unilaterally declaring that they would be secure there.
Both factions within the party voiced their discontent strongly: the moderate group because using legislation to declare a favorable set of facts is not usual, and the conservative group because it did not completely block any involvement of the European court of human rights. Despite this, the bill successfully passed its first stage, but the conservatives threatened to cause more issues when it returns to parliament this month. Yesterday, members of parliament discussed potential changes to the bill, and will continue to do so today before voting on the bill as a whole tonight.
This is the background for a survey released by the Telegraph recently that presents unpleasant results for members of the Tory party, indicating that they are headed towards a major defeat similar to what happened in 1997. In terms of politics in Westminster, this battle serves as a placeholder for debates regarding Sunak’s influence and also serves as a preview for the upcoming quarrel over the direction of the party in the event of their loss in the next election. In Katy Balls’ article discussing the reactions of backbenchers to the survey, one individual half-seriously comments to her, “I’m ready for the end.”
This has resulted in a disappointing week for Sunak, although there is a possibility of improvement later today.
According to a recent poll by the Sunday Telegraph, the Labour party is projected to win a majority of 120 seats.
Katy remarked that the results of the poll, which was initially released on Sunday evening, were not unexpected. She noted that over the past year, polls have consistently shown a 20-point advantage for Labour. However, this particular poll is causing more concern for MPs, as it is larger than usual and can indicate the state of individual constituencies. With a current total of 349 MPs and a projected survival rate of only 120, this means that 229 MPs now have a specific cause for concern about their political futures.
Although the YouGov survey is valid, there has been doubt surrounding its origin and delivery. It was funded by a secretive group of donors headed by Lord Frost. Frost believes that the Reform party, a right-wing populist group, poses the biggest threat to the Conservative party, especially in regards to immigration. As evidence, Frost also wrote an accompanying piece expressing this viewpoint.
However, this statement is heavily debated. YouGov believed it was necessary to separate itself from the Telegraph’s implication that the presence of Reform UK could determine whether or not Labour attains a majority.
In a thought-provoking article for CapX discussing the challenges facing the Conservative party, Henry Hill critiques the Telegraph’s analysis. He argues that the Conservatives are facing a greater loss of voters to their left rather than their right. Despite this, as their polling numbers decline, the group of voters who can be persuaded to support them will likely lean more towards the right. However, this does not necessarily mean that winning a majority depends on courting these voters.
According to Katy, Conservative Members of Parliament view this situation and typically believe that the answer lies in their preconceived notions. She does not believe it has altered anyone’s perspective, but rather solidified a feeling of decline and apprehension within the party.
On Monday, the deputy chairs of the Tory party expressed support for amendments proposed by rebels.
On Monday evening, Brendan Clarke-Smith and Lee Anderson, the two deputy chairs of the party, announced their support for rebel amendments that would prevent the implementation of international human rights laws. This posed a major concern for Sunak regarding party unity and the possibility of their continued positions.
At the moment, Isaac Levido, a strategist for the Tory party, updated Members of Parliament on the Telegraph’s polling and the party’s plan for the upcoming election. Katy has provided extensive information on this in the Spectator. According to Levido, the poll was requested by individuals who are more focused on post-election outcomes rather than the election itself. He also emphasized the importance of encouraging voters to continue with the current plan instead of starting from scratch with Sunak’s approach.
Levido received a response from members of Parliament who are not part of the government, at the minimum. “Some of them view it as a reasonable approach,” Katy explained. “It’s not that they oppose the strategy, but rather they question if it will suffice. Some of those who were elected in 2019 on the ‘Get Brexit Done’ platform may be let down that the party is reverting back to the same message they had in 2015. However, the situation is vastly different now.”
On Tuesday, there were 60 members of the Conservative party who rebelled against the party’s stance and three members who chose to resign.
Following Clarke-Smith and Anderson’s statements that they would support changes to the legislation, Sunak had to determine if they were willing to risk their positions as a result.
Katy stated that Sunak typically tries to avoid disagreements. She believes he did not intend to dismiss Lee Anderson, but if both Anderson and Clarke-Smith remained, many non-titled backbenchers would feel justified in disregarding rules.
Ultimately, the government stated that supporting the revisions would render their positions invalid. As a result, both individuals promptly resigned. Jane Stevenson, an aide to business secretary Kemi Badenoch, also stepped down from her position.
A total of 60 Conservative party members in the House of Commons voted against the government, marking the largest rebellion during Sunak’s time as Prime Minister. However, this was not a significant blow as the Labour party did not join in. According to Katy, the rebels do not have enough support on their own and require the opposition’s backing to strengthen the bill through amendments.
On Wednesday, there will be a crucial vote on the Rwanda bill.
Several amendments are scheduled for discussion today. Although Labour may not support them individually, they will oppose the bill in its entirety during the vote tonight. Katy noted that this could be an opportunity for those like Suella Braverman to join forces with the opposition. Additionally, there is speculation about whether No 10 has alienated the rebels by not collaborating with them on the amendments.
Ultimately, despite any unexpected occurrences, she believes that the bill will probably be approved. “There is a possibility that, in the end, if the rebels do not go too far, they will reveal their vulnerability and Sunak’s power will receive a slight increase.”
According to a report by The Daily Telegraph, 15 members of the Conservative party are prepared to vote against the legislation, while others are still deciding. The government would need at least 28 rebels to be defeated, although abstentions could lower this number.
One indication of the temperature was in a melodramatic social media post from a prominent rebel, Simon Clarke, who said that he was not “fucking around”. But in this analysis piece, Peter Walker writes that one important factor against a government defeat is that “the most likely outcome is a swift election and thus political oblivion.”
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In that situation, many members of the Conservative party would be angered by any additional lack of discipline – but there are some who have already lost hope for the upcoming election. For this particular group, the debates surrounding Rwanda and the Telegraph poll are mainly about determining the party’s direction while in opposition. Katy stated, “I believe more are considering their positions this year than those who are not. However, it is also accurate that some are already looking towards the future and attempting to guide the party towards their desired direction.”
What else we’ve been reading
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The number of pregnant women in Puerto Rico who give birth via caesarean section has significantly increased. In a report from Bayamón, Coral Murphy Marcos uncovers the concerning factors behind this trend. Nimo
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Larsen
Unfortunately, public restrooms have been at risk for a long time. The UK has only spent half of the previous amount on them since 2010, and there are now no public restrooms in the city center of Newcastle, compared to 80 in the 1960s. Architect Alberte Lauridsen has proposed some intelligent solutions for those in need and how to resolve this issue.
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At the age of 22, Adam Johnson was struck by a car traveling at 55mph in a nearly fatal crash, causing severe damage to his body. After 16 years, Johnson speaks with Elle Hunt for the How We Survive series about his gradual healing and the artistic activities that give him strength. Nimo
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You may be aware of the strong notion that there exists a group of voters who strongly support a party that prioritizes funding the NHS and punishing paedophiles. Cas Mudde discusses a German effort to create a similar “left-wing conservatism” and explains why it ultimately only serves to reinforce mainstream far-right rhetoric.
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In case you missed it, Kyle Chayka’s insightful and reflective article on the homogenization of formerly diverse social spaces around the world is definitely worth reading. Using the trendy coffee shop as a key example, Chayka highlights the impact of digital platforms in creating a sense of eerie similarity – no matter where you are, be it Hong Kong, Bucharest, or New York, you will encounter identical minimalist coffee shops all chasing the same algorithmic promotions online. Nimo
Sport
Emma Raducanu made an impressive comeback at the Australian Open yesterday, winning 6-3, 6-2 against Shelby Rogers. 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva also had a strong performance, defeating No 6 seed Ons Jabeur 6-0, 6-2, marking Jabeur’s biggest loss at a grand slam event.
Newport will face Manchester United in the fourth round of the FA Cup, as they defeated Eastleigh 3-1. Luton overcame Bolton with a 2-1 comeback victory thanks to Chiedozie Ogbene. Championship team Bristol City surprised West Ham with an early goal from Tommy Conway, securing a 1-0 win.
Rugby union | The Wales winger Louis Rees-Zammit has stunned the rugby world on the eve of the Six Nations by announcing a career switch to American football with immediate effect. Rees-Zammit has “the odds stacked against him”, writes Robert Kitson – but his decision is evidence that “rugby no longer exerts the same magnetic pull in Wales that it once did”.
The front pages
The Guardian’s top story this morning is about a potential revolt against the PM’s plans for Rwanda, as several senior Tories resign. The Times reports that Sunak is facing resignations and the biggest rebellion yet, while the Telegraph focuses on the number of Tories opposing the PM in the Rwanda rebellion. The i reports on top Tories quitting in protest, while the Financial Times highlights Sunak’s heavy blow as Tory rebels increase. The Daily Express expresses its distress with a plaintive headline: “PM pleads with rebels to unite on Rwanda plan.” The Daily Mail speculates on whether 60 Tory rebels will be enough to defeat the PM’s boat bill tonight. Meanwhile, the Daily Mirror cheers on the Post Office inquiry with a headline reading “About time.” The Metro reports on Fujitsu’s boss promising to pay up in the face of moral obligation for postmasters.
Today in Focus
The current situation in the Red Sea continues to worsen as the Houthis, a rebel group in Yemen, increase their attacks on commercial shipping vessels.
The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea is intensifying due to the Houthis, a Yemeni rebel faction, ramping up their assaults on merchant ships.
The Houthis, a rebel group in Yemen, have been launching attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. In response, the UK and US have conducted airstrikes. Patrick Wintour provides coverage on this issue.
Daily Cartoon featuring Ella Baron
The Upside
Some positive news to remind you that the world is not completely negative.
At the age of 12, Hemesh Chadalavada became aware that his 63-year-old grandmother Jayasree had accidentally left the gas on in their kitchen. Despite her Alzheimer’s disease, this was the first time he noticed the potential danger it could cause.
Chadalavada (above) made the decision to utilize his passion for robotics in order to create a gadget that would assist individuals, particularly his grandmother. After five years, he is now ready to produce the Alpha Monitor, a device that can detect falls or wandering behavior in those with Alzheimer’s. Unlike other devices that rely on Bluetooth or wifi and have limited range, Chadalavada’s invention uses long-range technology, making it capable of detecting a person up to a mile away in urban areas and three miles in rural areas. He is also determined to make the device affordable for most people. “My goal is to develop products that can benefit people in India and around the world,” says Chadalavada.
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Bored at work?
Lastly, the Guardian’s brainteasers are available to provide entertainment throughout the day – with even more options on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for both iOS and Android. See you tomorrow.
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Quick crossword
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Cryptic crossword
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Source: theguardian.com
