On Sunday, Senegal will hold elections following a period of turmoil, aggression, and doubt, fueling concerns that democracy has suffered severe damage in one of the most politically steady nations in West Africa.
Experts claim that the Senegalese presidential race is the most unpredictable it has been since gaining independence from France over six decades ago.
The day for voting occurs just seven weeks after President Macky Sall unexpectedly called off the election, damaging Senegal’s image as a leading democracy in Africa.
Confronted with demonstrations resulting in four deaths and numerous arrests, Sall was compelled to reverse his actions, which opponents viewed as an effort to hold onto control.
According to experts, the competition will most likely come down to a direct competition between Amadou Ba, who has been chosen by Sall as his successor, and Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a prominent candidate from the opposition who was recently released from jail.
Olayinka Ajala, a professor of politics and international relations at Leeds Beckett University, predicts that Ba may come out on top due to his support from the government.
“It’s difficult to determine, to be honest,” stated Ajala.
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The editorial director of Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Pat Thaker, is of the opinion that Faye is most likely to win, primarily due to his endorsement by the charismatic Ousmane Sonko. Sonko was recently released from jail but is unable to run in the election as he has been disqualified.
Sonko has gained a considerable number of supporters in Senegal through his anti-establishment and anti-corruption political approach. Unlike many African countries, Senegal has maintained its independence since 1960 without experiencing a coup, making it unique in its lack of political instability.
As the vote approaches, Ba has begun to aggressively rally his supporters, announcing that the “bandits” will not emerge victorious.
Several analysts have expressed concern about potential conflicts on Sunday, despite the general belief that the election will bring an end to the unrest in Senegal. This is particularly true if Ba wins.
Both candidates are not expected to win by a large margin; it is probable that a runoff election will determine the ultimate outcome.
According to Sidy Diop, deputy editor at Senegal’s Le Soleil newspaper, the presidential election has been deemed the most competitive out of the 12 held since the country gained independence from France with universal suffrage.
The winner will take on the responsibility of guiding Senegal out of its recent difficulties, while also handling the income from newly discovered oil and gas deposits.
The discovery of over one billion barrels of oil and 900 billion cubic meters of gas has raised expectations for potential wealth in a nation where the UN World Food Programme reports that 39% of the population lives in impoverished conditions.
The IMF has reinforced these expectations by forecasting an 8.8% increase in economic growth this year, citing the anticipated commencement of oil and gas extraction as a major contributing factor – more than twice the growth seen in the previous year.
The substantial number of young people in Senegal will greatly influence who will succeed Sall. In Senegal, the average age is 22 years, a demographic that gives the advantage to Faye and Sonko. Sonko has gained a devoted youth following through his criticism of the elite and France, the country that once colonized Senegal.
Nearly a third of young people in the country are out of work, and many have set their sights on getting to Europe or America to try to improve their prospects.
On Sunday, a total of 7 million Senegalese citizens are expected to participate in the voting process. There will be 18 male candidates and one female candidate available for selection on the ballot.
Even though Anta Babacar Ngom, a 40-year-old leader in the business world, has a slim chance of becoming the next president due to her gender, those fighting for gender equality claim that her candidacy is making progress towards their long-standing goal.
Source: theguardian.com
