A report has issued a stark warning that the climate crisis may result in an additional 10,000 deaths per year in the UK by the 2050s due to extreme heat and the spread of tropical diseases.
According to a report from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) on Monday, a worst-case scenario suggests that temperatures could increase by an average of 4.3C, resulting in a potential twelvefold increase in heat-related deaths by 2070. It also predicts a potential one-and-a-half times increase in deaths during the 2030s.
The data is sourced from the UKHSA’s report titled “Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC)”, which investigates the impact of the climate emergency on health outcomes in the UK.
It suggests that illnesses spread by insects, like dengue fever or Zika virus, could potentially spread throughout the UK as a result of the introduction of species from warmer regions.
According to the report, the Asian tiger mosquito, which can spread diseases like dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, may become prevalent in England by the 2040s and 2050s. The areas of Wales, Northern Ireland, and parts of the Scottish Lowlands could also become suitable habitats later in the century. By 2060, London may experience ongoing transmission of dengue.
The head scientist at UKHSA, Prof Isabel Oliver, stated that the report clearly shows the potential consequences of climate change if we do not act quickly. This could result in significant effects on both our physical and mental well-being, and worsen the already existing health disparities due to the changing climate.
However, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) clarifies that these forecasts are based on a worst-case scenario and that steps can be taken to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change on health outcomes.
One way to achieve this goal is by making changes in our actions and taking steps to reduce the problem. Some possible efforts include setting up national systems to warn about extreme heat and cold, as well as implementing energy-efficient measures and flood protection in housing.
Professor Oliver stated that in the UK, there are measures that can be taken to avoid negative health impacts and others that can be prevented through proper adaptation. It is crucial that this report’s evidence is utilized to inform policy and prompt action.
The report also discusses steps that must be taken to reduce the potential harm, such as implementing solar power, using energy-efficient lighting, and utilizing passive or low-carbon methods for heating and cooling.
The text states that as temperatures rise and the population ages, there will be a higher number of deaths and health issues caused by extreme heat. An estimated 10,000 deaths per year may occur by 2050 if no adaptation measures are taken to combat high levels of warming.
The current international objective to keep global warming under 1.5C is expected to be surpassed in the next 5 to 10 years, as the world is currently on track to experience a 2.7C increase in temperature.
According to the most severe emissions predictions by UKHSA, the number of deaths related to cold weather is projected to rise temporarily due to an aging and expanding population. However, by the middle of the century, this number is expected to decrease, with a peak in deaths from moderate cold occurring around the same time before gradually declining by the 2070s.
In 2022, a record-breaking number of 4,500 individuals in England passed away as a result of extreme heat. Among those deaths, over 2,800 were individuals aged 65 and above during the heatwave that year. On July 19th and 20th, when temperatures reached an unprecedented high of 40C, there was a sudden increase in fatalities, with 638 and 496 recorded on each day respectively.
The report emphasizes that the negative impact of climate change on health will predominantly harm disadvantaged communities, potentially exacerbating existing health disparities.
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The text states that the elderly population in the UK will play a significant role in determining the country’s vulnerability to climate change in terms of health in the next few decades. These climate-related health risks will align with the current disparities in health and inequality.
Individuals who may struggle to regulate their surroundings, adjust their actions, or handle unfamiliar dangers will be at a higher risk, including children, individuals with disabilities, those without stable housing, and those in specific environments like correctional facilities, educational institutions, and social service facilities.
According to Dr. Lea Berrang Ford, director of the Centre for Climate and Health Security at UKHSA, the effects of climate change will not be evenly distributed among people and communities.
She mentioned, “With vector-borne diseases, the majority of threats will initially arise in the southern regions of the country due to the spread of risks from Europe.”
“We are witnessing similar trends where the effects of climate change are worsening existing health vulnerabilities. This disproportionately affects communities and individuals who are unable to afford or have access to cooling technologies, cooling centers, and other adaptation options. The impacts of climate change are unevenly distributed, not only geographically, but also at the community and individual levels.”
The report cautions that if emissions continue to be high, a larger number of individuals in the UK will face heightened danger from extreme flooding. The most significant health consequence of this will be a decline in mental well-being. Those who encounter flooding are more vulnerable to experiencing depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder.
A representative from the government stated that the UK is at the forefront of combatting climate change by significantly reducing emissions, surpassing other major economies. Currently, the country’s emissions only make up 1% of global emissions.
The program involves implementing strategies to enhance the resilience of healthcare systems to climate change. This includes collaborating with the healthcare and social services sector to better address the impact of climate change, such as extreme weather occurrences.
Source: theguardian.com
