The upcoming UK general election will take place in 650 newly redrawn constituencies, as parliament has approved boundary modifications.
Although there have been no previous elections within these limits, scholars Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, from the University of Plymouth, have predicted how these newly formed districts would have potentially voted in the 2019 election using data analysis.
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Limits were modified following an evaluation suggesting that electoral districts should have a more balanced population. Now, districts must have populations that are within 5% of the designated "electoral quota" of 73,393, with the exception of five selected island seats.
Out of a total of 65 seats, one out of every ten will remain unchanged in terms of their boundaries. The remaining 585 seats will experience some degree of change, with only 40 of them undergoing minor adjustments to their boundaries.
There are seventy-six seats, such as Clacton, that have been expanded beyond their current limits to comply with the required minimum number of voters.
Seventy-three seats, such as Sheffield Central, have been resized to allocate space to other constituencies in order to achieve a more balanced distribution of population among similarly sized seats.
Rallings and Thrasher, representing BBC News, ITV News, Sky News, and the Press Association, gathered the estimated results. Prof David Denver computed the figures for Scotland while Nicholas Whyte did so for Northern Ireland.
The analysis indicates that if the most recent election had taken place using the updated constituency boundaries, the Conservative majority would have increased by 14 seats. Additionally, it highlights that the swing towards Labour needed for them to win an overall majority has increased by 0.7 percentage points, from 12.0 to 12.7.
Based on the new boundaries, the Conservatives are expected to gain seven seats, increasing their current total of 365 to 372. In contrast, Labour's total would decrease by two, from 203 to 201 (including the speaker's seat). This means that Sir Keir Starmer would now need to gain a net total of 125 seats in order to secure a majority.
Source: theguardian.com
