The potential impact of these reforms on poverty projections has been estimated using a static microsimulation model. Using this model, we estimate there will be an additional 250,000 people (including 50,000 children) in relative poverty after housing costs in 2029/30 as a result of modelled changes to social security, compared to the baseline projections.
Relative poverty is defined as having a household income below 60% of the median.
Rachel Reeves of imposing “austerity cuts” on the most vulnerable, adding that increased national insurance costs would already “short-change Scotland’s public services …to the tune of hundreds of millions of pounds”. Robison said:
The UK government’s choice to increase defence investment is welcome, but its choices to shortchange public services and deliver austerity cuts to some of the most vulnerable are deplorable.
Stephen Boyd of the IPPR Scotland pointed out that welfare cuts – and the knock-on reduction in consequentials even where the benefit is devolved, as with Pip – would “only intensify” the fiscal challenges already facing the Scottish government, while STUC general secretary Roz Foyer blasted Reeves for not rewriting her “self-imposed and self-defeating” fiscal rules. She said:
She could have increased taxes on corporations or the wealthy. She could have delayed decisions till the autumn budget. Instead, she has rushed through deeply damaging cuts to support for disabled people.
The fact that the Government is now freezing some benefits that they appeared to rule out only last week, show that this is policy on the hoof, and it is our most vulnerable who are bearing the brunt.
2.22pm) will cause “huge anxiety”. Helen Walker, its chief executive, says:
Today’s spring statement confirms that the government’s welfare reform plans will include the first substantial cuts to carer’s allowance in decades, realising many carers’ worst fears. This is an unprecedented step in the wrong direction and must be swiftly rectified.
Carers save the UK economy an estimated £184bn a year, but now many more are in danger of further financial hardship and poverty. They deserve so much more. The repercussions of today’s changes will be felt deeply by those who for too long, have been our last line of defence – providing vital support which simply can’t be found elsewhere.
in its report. It explains:
Inheritance tax (IHT) receipts are forecast to raise £8.4bn in 2024-25, a 11.6% increase on 2023-24 largely driven by higher asset prices in the second half of 2024, combined with frozen tax-free thresholds. Receipts are then forecast to rise to £14.3bn in 2029-30, with around £2.5bn of the rise in 2029-30 due to the policies announced in October 2024.
DWP’s impact assessment shows] that the largest group affected by the changes will be single women, making up 44% of those losing out, at an average of £1,610 a year.
Stephenson is referring to these figures.
And this is what the DWP analysis says about these numbers.
Single females are more likely to lose than single males which reflects that women are more likely to be in receipt of disability benefits than men, and single females have a slightly higher average loss per annum compared to single males.
However, the majority of families gaining are single female families. The package of measures means that around 4 in 10 families gaining are lone parents with the majority of lone parents gaining. Lone parents are more likely to claim Universal Credit than other family types and benefit from the increase in the Standard Allowance, with most lone parents being women.
1.50pm, 2.02pm and 2.22pm.)
This is from the Lib Dem leader Ed Davey, referring in particular to 800,000 people who will lose Pip and the 150,000 people who will lose the carer’s allowance.
These cuts will be a double whammy to the most vulnerable, hitting disabled people who cannot work while slashing support for the loved ones who care for them.
Carers need more support, not less. Snatching away the little support these carers get will do nothing to help people into work; it will just put more pressure on already over-stretched carers, social care and the NHS.
This is from the SNP work and pensions spokesperson Kirsty Blackman.
It’s now clear the Labour party’s austerity cuts to disabled people will hurt the most vulnerable in society, push thousands of families into poverty, and slash the Scottish government’s budget.
During the election, the Labour party promised voters it would stop the cuts, grow the economy and improve living standards – but it has broken all three of those promises.
And this is from Alex Charilaou, co-chair of Momentum, the leftwing Labour group.
Balancing the books on the most vulnerable in society was not in Labour’s manifesto, nor is it what voters voted for. But it’s clear from this Spring statement that the government is continuing down the path of Tory austerity. Labour MPs now must speak out and let it be clear that this is not what the labour movement stands for.
Attacking the government over the impact of the cuts is not really an option for the Conservative party, because they have been arguing that the cuts should be deeper.
National Debtline, is bracing for a jump in people looking for help due to cuts to welfare payments.
Steve Vaid, chief executive at the Money Advice Trust, says:
“The unexpected cut to the Universal Credit health element for new claimants risks pushing more people facing health issues into financial difficulty in future. Around half of people receiving Universal Credit who we help at National Debtline already have a negative budget, meaning they don’t have enough money coming in to cover their essential costs, like food and household bills. In light of this announcement, it is likely that we will see more even more people coming to us in this predicament.
“With households due to be hit next week by rises in energy, water and council tax bills, the Chancellor’s statement was light on help for people whose budgets are already at breaking point. Instead of these cuts, we need to see the introduction of an energy social tariff and increased council tax support to help lift the pressure on households on the lowest incomes.”
which we covered earlier).Office for Budget Responsibility are presenting their new forecasts to journalists – you can watch it here:
OBR chief Richard Hughes has begun by explaining that the current outlook for the UK economy, and the global economy, is “particularly uncertain”.
He points to the global debt markets, where the yields on many government bonds have risen since last autumn.
The financial markets appear to be taking today’s spring statement in their stride.
The pound hasn’t shifted at all – it’s still down half a cent today at $1.289, where it was trading before Reeves got to her feet at 12.30pm.
Government bonds are slightly stronger, which has pulled down the ‘yield’ (or interest rate) on UK gilts.
Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, says:
Fiscal buffers restored – for now. From a market perspective, Chancellor Reeves returned the fiscal headroom back to where it was in her maiden Budget.
On her primary stability rule, the projected headroom sits near £10bn. On her secondary investment rule, the projected headroom sits nearer £15bn. To be clear, these buffers remain wafer thin. And as such, Reeves’ fiscal headroom remains vulnerable to small changes in the economy or market conditions.
Indeed, accounting for recent interest rate expectations alongside the weaker February public finances report could be enough to more than halve Chancellor Reeves’ published headroom (i.e. against the primary stability rule).
Source: theguardian.com
