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After playing 10 matches in the Premier League, Tottenham was in first place with Arsenal and Manchester City trailing by two points and Liverpool one point behind them. Had it not been for the VAR error that caused Luis Díaz’s goal to be disallowed at Spurs, the top three teams would likely still be in the same positions with 10 games left to play.
What does this indicate? That the top three teams are closely matched, have been performing consistently throughout the season, and that despite the constant excitement, modern league football does not have significant changes of fate.
To achieve the status of an iconic confrontational season, similar to the 1971-72 season where Derby claimed the title due to losses from Leeds and Liverpool in their last games, there must be unexpected shifts and changes. The desirable scenario would be for all three teams to lose points in at least three or four out of their remaining 10 games. In the 2018-19 season, where City narrowly beat Liverpool by one point, there was a peculiar lack of excitement during the last two months as both teams won all of their last nine matches.
One issue with the economic separation in the modern Premier League is that winning teams now require 85 points or more to be declared champions, often even exceeding 90 points. As a result, there is less room for mistakes and comebacks compared to previous times when a high 70s score could suffice.
All three teams will have some remorse. City will question their loss at Wolves, the four points they let slip against Chelsea, and the two late goals that caused them to draw with Crystal Palace at home. Liverpool will reflect on their draws at Luton and with Manchester United at home, where they had 34 shots but failed to score. Arsenal experienced a rough patch over the holidays with defeats against Fulham and West Ham.
However, small bumps along the way can be beneficial. Success should require effort and determination; constant and easy victories do not benefit anyone.
The last time there was a three-way title race anywhere near as close as this at this stage of the season was 2010 when, on 27 February, Chelsea lost 4-2 at home to Manchester City. With 10 games to go they led Manchester United by a point with Arsenal two points further back. Arsenal fell away with a draw at Birmingham and defeats at Tottenham and Wigan, while Chelsea won eight of their last nine games – including, crucially, 2-1 at Old Trafford – to clinch the title.
On the last day, Chelsea was one point ahead of United. However, as Chelsea was playing at home against Wigan while United was at home against Stoke, it seemed like the championship had already been determined the previous weekend when Chelsea won 2-0 against Liverpool. As expected, United beat Stoke 4-0 but Chelsea also crushed Wigan 8-0.
There is a potential for a lackluster finish to the season if Arsenal, Liverpool and City face opposing teams who have no motivation: Everton, Wolves and West Ham, respectively. This is why the upcoming game between City and Arsenal at Etihad Stadium on Sunday holds great significance, with a significant amount of the season still remaining.
Although all three sides have Tottenham and Aston Villa left to play, this is the last of the season’s six meetings between the three challengers. City will be wary of a trip to Spurs but, that aside, this is their only serious remaining hurdle. Get over it with the deficit still at one point and they will be strong favourites. That’s why the feeling at Anfield a fortnight ago was that Liverpool really needed a win to open a little clear water.
In the previous year, there was a feeling that due to the World Cup happening in the middle of the season, our mental timelines were messed up and the end of the season started too early. Every game felt critical. The victories of Arsenal against Aston Villa and Bournemouth were celebrated as if they were the final stretch, even though there was still a third of the season left to play.
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Unfortunately, when we reached the highly anticipated match between City and Arsenal at the Etihad in late April, it was already clear that Arsenal’s three consecutive draws had taken them out of the running.
This year, the game comes with the race for the title still in full swing. Out of the top six teams, City has only managed to beat United; if we expand that to the top six, their record includes two draws against Chelsea and a decisive 1-0 loss against Aston Villa. While City remains undefeated in 22 games across all competitions (winning 19 of them), there is a lingering feeling of vulnerability, especially after their second half performance at Anfield. On the other hand, Arsenal has defeated City twice this season – once in August’s Community Shield on penalties and again with a 1-0 victory in the league in October.
Unfortunately, Arsenal was knocked out of the FA Cup in January and will enter the upcoming game with a 19-day gap in their playing schedule. On one hand, this break may be poorly timed for the team as they were on a streak of eight consecutive league victories and had made progress to the quarter-finals of the Champions League. As shown in their intense second half against Brentford, Arsenal is a team that is prone to strong emotions, which can have both positive and negative effects. Therefore, it is crucial for them to maintain morale and belief in themselves.
However, their most recent break, which was not affected by international duty, proved to be a turning point in their form after a slump during the Christmas period. If they have used this time to perfect at least one new set piece routine, it could make all the difference.
The remaining schedule for Arsenal is difficult, with matches against Brighton, Wolves, Tottenham, and United. Despite their good performance in February, can we rely on them to not have a dip in form like they did against Fulham and West Ham?
However, they also possess a chance, which Liverpool was unable to capitalize on, to cause harm to a competitor. If they are victorious on Sunday, at a stadium where they have not emerged victorious in nine years, the surge of excitement could propel them to victory.
Source: theguardian.com
