Núñez and the high line
Fans have always noticed Pep Guardiola’s teams’ vulnerability to balls played in behind their defense, which is a result of their high press style that is so effective at regaining possession. This is a concept that highlights the duality of football, where every positive aspect is accompanied by a negative aspect and there is no one definitive “best” way to play.
In the last 15 years, Guardiola has faced a major challenge in trying to reduce risks, with his unconventional methods often being seen as “overthinking” – such as the use of a 4-4-2 formation against Anfield in 2018, a back three against Lyon in 2020, and Ilkay Gündogan’s absence in the 2021 Champions League final. These choices have been heavily criticized for contributing to the unexpected failures he experienced between his second and third Champions League victories.
Ever since Erling Haaland joined, City has adjusted their playing style to utilize his ability to break past defenders, straying away from their previous strategy of conservatively holding onto possession to avoid conceding a counter-attack. Unfortunately, this adjustment has only worsened their issue of giving up goals on fast breaks, with only Crystal Palace having conceded more in the Premier League this season.
Liverpool’s talent in retrieving the ball and swiftly attacking has caused an issue, highlighted by their high number of fast break goals this season despite holding majority possession. In many games, Darwin Núñez has been seen confidently charging towards the goal, but the outcome of these attempts has been inconsistent. He may miss the target, fail to beat the keeper, or execute an impressive and unexpected finish, as seen in his goal against Brentford. This upcoming match could potentially see Núñez scoring a remarkable hat-trick, but he could also be criticized for squandering multiple scoring opportunities.
Countering the counter threat
I find it difficult to believe that Guardiola has not planned to prevent this from becoming a one-on-one confrontation between Núñez and Ederson. Based on his past performance, he could potentially come up with numerous strategies without hesitation, even if they seem unconventional. However, there are a few obvious measures he could take to address the situation.
The initial strategy is to establish more dominance in the midfield by avoiding direct passes to Haaland. The main concept is to regain possession of the ball and, unless a clear through pass presents itself, focus on making at least 15 passes to properly position the midfield before launching an attack.
City has been losing possession more often this season due to Jérémy Doku’s presence. Although he has been exciting to watch, 4.6 out of his 9.4 attempted dribbles per 90 minutes have been unsuccessful. This is similar to Jack Grealish, who has successfully completed 1.6 out of 3.2 dribbles per 90 minutes. However, the issue lies in the number of attempts; Doku has not yet undergone the same adaptions that Grealish did after joining City, resulting in him being more hesitant to take risks and more likely to turn towards the center and make a simple pass. It’s important to note that not all instances of losing possession hold the same weight.
It is notable that the only major game in which Doku was chosen to play was the Liverpool game at Etihad, in which Grealish was unable to play. When Doku has played against weaker opponents in league games, City has conceded an average of 1.29 goals compared to only 0.69 when he is not on the field. This indicates that Doku will most likely not be starting on Sunday, which may result in Phil Foden playing on the left due to Grealish’s groin injury.
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StonesBranch’s responsibility in…
City’s success in the second half of last season can be attributed to their discovery of an auxiliary midfielder to replace the one they lost. This came in the form of John Stones, who stepped forward from central defence and operated alongside Rodri at the back of midfield. In a recent match against Bournemouth, Stones went even further by pushing up high and even acting as an auxiliary second striker. The attacking movements of Stones and Rodri from deeper positions were crucial in breaking through Manchester United’s defensive block in a match last week.
It is safe to assume Liverpool will not sit so deep and that Stones will not be doing that on Sunday, but it will be intriguing how high he pushes. Stay deep as a fairly orthodox central defender and City will not be able to overman in midfield which will make it harder for them to create the sort of control Guardiola favours. But push up too high and too often and that could leave Rúben Dias, who has not had the best of seasons, isolated against Núñez, which seems a risk.
Who is playing in the midfield?
It is likely that Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, and Bernardo Silva will all be in the starting lineup. However, if Doku is not included and Foden is positioned on the left, how will the team be configured? Silva is expected to play on the right, which is understandable, although it highlights the fact that Riyad Mahrez has yet to be adequately replaced. This could potentially mean that Julián Álvarez will play behind Haaland in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but it is more probable that Mateo Kovacic will be brought in, resulting in De Bruyne being the most advanced central midfielder in a 4-3-3 formation.
The comeback of Dominik Szoboszlai helps alleviate some of the burden on Liverpool’s midfield. Alexis Mac Allister has been performing well, and with Curtis Jones and Ryan Gravenberch out due to injuries, the three players practically select themselves. Wataru Endo is expected to join the team now that he has recovered from the injury he sustained during the League Cup final. However, Liverpool still lacks Trent Alexander-Arnold, which puts them at a disadvantage against City, who will likely have more players in that area, especially when Stones moves forward.
Source: theguardian.com
