Demi Moore for The Substance
Career wins and nominations: After a career marked more by box office records than silverware – bar a Golden Raspberry win – Moore, 62, has been hoovering up a lot of trophies for The Substance. She missed out on the Bafta earlier this month, and the independent spirit award, but won the Golden Globe for leading actress in a comedy or musical, as well as the Critics’ Choice trophy and the Sag award.
Who she plays: Fading 50-year-old celebrity Elisabeth Sparkle, who turns to a black market drug to create a younger version of herself, after being abruptly fired from her TV aerobics show due to her age. But the drug comes with unexpected side effects.
How’s she doing in the Oscars race: Frontrunner, just. Most money is still on Moore, but the gongs she’s lost have been to the same person – Mikey Madison – whose film, Anora, has benefited from a last minute surge of momentum. But at this stage, it’s still Moore’s to lose.
What the Guardian said: It’s flawed and overlong but there’s a genius bit of casting in Demi Moore who is a very good sport about the whole thing.
Why she should win: Moore’s is an irresistible comeback narrative – and she knows it. “I’ve been doing this a long time – like over 45 years – and this is the first time I’ve ever won anything as an actor,” she said on the podium at the Golden Globes.
“Thirty years ago, I had a producer tell me I was a popcorn actress and, at that time, I made that mean this wasn’t something I was allowed to have. That I could do movies that made a lot of money, but that I couldn’t be acknowledged, and I bought in and I believed that.”
Moore said this thought “corroded” her to the extent that she “thought a couple of years ago that maybe this was it, maybe I was complete, that I had done what I was supposed to do”.
The actor said she was “at a low point” when Coralie Fargeat’s script for The Substance found its way to her. “The universe told me, ‘You are not done.’”
Moore is well-liked across the industry, and her legacy of getting bums on seats through the 80s and 90s still fondly recalled. She has won further fans for her gracious support of former husband Bruce Willis – with whom she has three children – as his health declines. Her 2019 memoir detailed a childhood strikingly heavy on trauma and upset, which she has also handled with poise and dignity.
The role is also helpful: Fargeat’s satire taps into America’s fear of middle-aged women and its squeamishness about celebrities looking their age at a moment of particularly abrasive patriarchy at the top. Hollywood’s opportunities for demonstrating their distaste with the reality TV star in the White House are not enormous this year – but a victory for Moore in this role would sort of count.
Why she may not win: The Substance is not without its decriers – or those who find it simply too gory to enjoy. Horror has a patchy record at august awards. And a lot of people are really wowed by Mikey Madison.
Further reading: ‘We can be violent to ourselves. Brutal’: Demi Moore on body image, reinvention and her most shocking role yet
Why The Substance should win the best picture Oscar
Demi Moore’s 20 best films – ranked!
How to watch Demi Moore in The Substance
Australia: in cinemas
UK: in cinemas
US: in cinemas
Mikey Madison for Anora
Career wins and nominations: At 25, Anora is Madison’s first major role, and the only one for which she’s been up for any awards. So far, she’s taken the Independent Spirit prize for best actress, and, most notably so far, the Bafta. She’s been nominated for a clean sweep of major gongs.
Who she plays: The titular sex worker in Sean Baker’s comedy/romance/drama about her fling with an immature son of a Russian billionaire.
How’s she doing in the Oscars race: A strong second favourite. Had she won the Sag award last weekend, she would have moved to favourite.
What the Guardian said: It is a terrific performance from Madison, who owns the screen.
Why she should win: A lot of voters really, really like Anora – and Madison’s performance is the heart of the film (there’s barely a scene without her). It’s an astonishing breakthrough from a relative unknown – a fairytale Hollywood eagerly embraces – and it happily reclaims a profession from the nonsense of Pretty Woman. Baker’s film won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, and followed that a fortnight ago with major wins at guild awards in the US – the WGA and the PGA. Both the latter are reliable bellwethers of Oscars glory.
Why she may not win: She’s just too young, and too unknown to be readily distinguishable from the role (which was written for her). Moore’s almost-40-years of fame gives her an unbeatable edge. Some find Anora a touch shallow.
Further reading: Mikey Madison: from Tarantino bit part to hot tip for an Oscar playing a sex worker
Why Anora should win the best picture Oscar
How to watch Mikey Madison in Anora
Aus: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
UK: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
US: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here
Career wins and nominations: The Brazilian veteran won best actress at Cannes in 1986 for Love Me Forever or Never but until I’m Still Here her awards have mostly come from Latin America. For Walter Salles’s movie, however, she took the Golden Globe for best actress in a drama, making her the first Brazilian, Latin American, and Portuguese-speaking actor to do so. Her Oscar nomination is only the second ever given to a Brazilian actress in that category; the first was her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, for Central Station 26 years ago.
Who she plays: Eunice Paiva, the activist coping with the forced disappearance of her husband, the dissident politician Rubens Paiva, during Brazil’s military dictatorship in the early 1970s. Salles’s film is based on the memoir by one of their children, Marcelo.
How’s she doing in the Oscars race: Middling. Unlikely to win, but the most likely of the three remaining to pull an upset by doing so.
What the Guardian said: Torres is effectively the still centre of a heartfelt but also somehow numbed and sometimes even strangely placid story.
Why she should win: I’m Still Here is a major hit, with vocal and committed fans. It’s broken box office records – and Torres’s nomination is a landmark in itself. She’s acting royalty in Latin America and the story told is one which will strike a particular chord with liberal creatives in Hollywood troubled by Trump. The Golden Globe win was a major coup.
Why she may not win: The Globes are, however, voted for by about 300 international journalists – very few of whom (if any) will also be able to vote at the Academy Awards. Torres’s campaign was faintly damaged by another nominee (see below) accusing hers of sabotage, and by nepo-baby discourse.
Further reading: Brazil film portraying notorious crime during dictatorship strikes chord: ‘It hasn’t been overcome’
How to watch Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here
Aus: in cinemas
UK: in cinemas
US: in cinemas
Cynthia Erivo for Wicked
Career wins and nominations: The most highly decorated contender this year, Erivo is one Oscar short of an EGOT, having already bagged a daytime Emmy, a Grammy and a Tony. This is her third Academy Award nomination – following song and performance nods for 2019’s Harriet. She’s also been nominated for two Baftas, four Golden Globes and four Sag awards.
Who she plays: Elphaba Thropp, green-skinned, much-maligned and the future Wicked Witch of the West, in the first part of Jon M Chu’s adaptation of the Broadway hit set in pre-Dorothy Oz.
How’s she doing in the Oscars race: Badly. No one is tipping Erivo for the gong.
What the Guardian said: It’s a sugar-rush fantasy with the overpowering star presence of Cynthia Erivo; it basically dunks you face-down in a hyperreal ball pit of M&Ms for two and three-quarter hours.
Why she should win best actress: Wicked is one of only two certified blockbusters in contention this year, the other being Dune: Part Two. Hollywood is conscious of the need to reward movies people actually want to go and watch, and to doff their cap to the tastes of the young. Erivo is a massive talent and the soul of the film. She’s been impeccably gracious through the press tour, while also taking no prisoners (see her outrage at a fan poster which minimised her role). The film is an overt push-back to prejudice and discrimination, albeit via maligned green-skinned witches and talking animals, and Erivo is a superb advocate of this message.
Why she may not win: There’s no real momentum behind the campaign – and the film doesn’t need gongs. Erivo might be becoming a bit of an awards bridesmaid, but at 38, there’s still plenty of time – and the second part of Wicked is slated for later this year …
Further reading: Cynthia Erivo on fame, fear and not fitting in: ‘I’ve never talked about how tough my journey has been’
Why Dune: Part Two should win the best picture Oscar
How to watch Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
Aus: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
UK: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
US: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
Karla Sofía Gascón for Emilia Pérez
Career wins and nominations: Along with her Emilia Pérez co-stars, Gascón won the best actress award at Cannes, before solo winning the European Film award for best actress. She is the first out trans actor ever nominated for an Oscar, and was the first nominated for a leading Golden Globe film award and a Bafta.
Who she plays: The titular star of Jacques Audiard’s daring musical about a Mexican cartel boss who fakes their own death and medically transitions.
How’s she doing in the Oscars race: Initially, brilliantly. Emilia Pérez was everyone’s favourite Cannes breakout – even more, perhaps, than Anora. It remained a favourite of awards voters even when gay, trans and Mexican communities voiced their disquiet. The fairytale around Gascón was a dream: an international unknown, whose previous experience was mostly telenovelas, and the first ever trans actor up for an Oscar. She had it in the bag!
What the Guardian said: Gascón carries it off with queenly flair.
Why she should win best actress: Few people could play that role convincingly and Gascón is one of them. Opportunities for trans actors are rare, and Hollywood is ever eager to celebrate them – especially as the new administration seeks to clamp down on their rights. A 52-year-old Hispanic trans newcomer would, you’d imagine be unbeatable.
Why she may not win: Er … let’s put it this way: if Gascón does win, it would be the biggest story ever at the Oscars, including the envelopes, the slap and the streaker. Gascón’s campaign imploded after offensive tweets, most pretty recent, many racist and some attacking the Oscars themselves, were unearthed. The star was repentant and apologetic but was shunned by her studio, director, co-stars – and assorted politicians. Netflix said they would no longer fund her expenses to attend any awards or events and hastily removed the star of their film from publicity about it.
A mild backlash to the backlash followed, which saw Audiard extend an olive branch, saying at the Baftas that he “kissed” the absent star, despite reporting the previous week that he hadn’t spoken to her and didn’t want to. With less than a week to go before the Academy Awards, Netflix U-turned, and said they would pay for her to go to both the Césars in Paris on Friday and the Oscars on Sunday. The plot thickens …
Further reading: ‘Madonna, please. It’s only a film. Be happy!’ The star of Emilia Pérez on transitioning at 46 and making icons cry
Source: theguardian.com
